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The market feels really busy. There’s a buzz we’ve not seen in years. That said, we’ve yet to see it translate into the numbers. Inventory is up from a seasonal perspective but, below the seasonal average. In the chart below, you can see how it has been consistently contracting for years now; consequently it’s affected deal volume as well. Where we are seeing the most activity is in well/accurately priced property; when buyers see value they execute. The most robust activity is coming from the luxury side of the market (generally considered to be the top 10%), which continues to pump at a higher rate. Note these are the people who generally pay cash and are far less affected my mortgage rates.
Which leads us to this month’s message…although mortgage rates have naturally eased to their lowest level in 3 years (see chart in the “Mortgage Rates”; section of this newsletter below)…Beware The Fed Rate Cut! That’s right!
We generally think of rate cuts as stimulative; however, we’ve learned that’s not necessarily the case when it comes to mortgage rates. I am increasingly hearing about people wanting to wait for the newly appointed Fed Chair to take his position and lower interest rates. The problem is this, we have learned that such a move downward in short-term rates (which is what the Fed actually controls) could send the longer term rates, like the 30 year mortgage, in the opposite direction. This was evidenced in a few of the recent; they were deemed by financial markets to be forced or premature and ironically, to everyone’s dismay, resulted in those longer-term mortgage rates moving higher. When financial markets feel these moves are not organic and more artificial in nature, they compensate by allowing the longer-term rates to float upward. These markets are extremely efficient and tend toward balance.
So if you’re planning to buy, get to it sooner rather than later. For years now, against all odds: damaging policy, the pandemic, a doubling of mortgage rates and even now…unpredictable leadership, we have had moderate deal volume and relatively flat prices. With the optimism we see and the demand we know of, the market is positioned to see consistent positive growth for several years to come, meaning that the earlier you get in the better.
Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home/investment property out there for them. Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
640 Park Avenue
Residence 9
One of the select-few truly exclusive and distinguished boutique cooperatives on all of Park Avenue…”all limestone, with double sets of Florentine-style windows and with only one five-bedroom apartment per floor”…nearly 70 feet of frontage facing Park Avenue…extraordinary volume…10’ ceilings…innumerable, large outward facing windows…four exposures…views and streams of sun and light throughout…private elevator landing and 375 sqft entry gallery, perfect for art…SE facing living room…oversized dining room…south facing library…an unusual and seductive corridor, 7 feet wide and nearly 48 feet long, perfect for art…commodious primary bedroom suite…and what was once described as a home with “six servants’ rooms, including a separate section for the butler and the second man” is now is currently 15 rooms, inclusive of 5 bedrooms, 6 bathrooms and two staff rooms…unparalleled location, in close proximity to world class restaurants, shopping, entertainment, art and culture, including the Metropolitan Museum of Art, The Frick Collection, Lincoln Center…this list goes on.
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