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The Mayoral election result has most predictions for 2026 in the “to be determined” phase…but optimism prevails. We expect increased liquidity, deal volume and moderate yet methodical price appreciation.
We’ve experienced lower rates* and consequently improved sentiment. These factors will spur activity from buyers who will re-enter the marketplace and sellers, who’ve been waiting to list their properties as well. *Note, when I say “lower rates,” it’s a relative term. Yes, we’re down to 6.5% on 30 year fixed jumbo, compared to 8% 24 months ago; but many still consider this to be elevated, particularly for those who are locked into a 3% rate. Regardless, this improvement is material and for both sides of the equation, buyers and sellers. These conditions will be increasingly favorable and sets the stage for a very healthy and balanced marketplace. I’ll qualify that a bit…like baseball when the tie goes to the runner; in Manhattan real estate, when there’s a tie (when market dynamics are essentially equitable between buyers and sellers), the tie goes to the seller. I say this because the force of demand for property in Manhattan, more often than not, outstrips supply. Although inventory will flow at an accelerated rate, we’re always in a chronically tight environment. Meaning, as a buyer, you need to be ultimately prepared…even more than sellers.
This increase in demand and deal volume will be the most substantial in over 3 years and will be the source of the price appreciation mentioned. As I said last month, we don’t expect there to be any spikes, as it will be based in buyer confidence and not speculative purchasing. What we expect is methodical appreciation for years to come. This pivot towards purchasing will also serve to ease pressure on rentals…but again, this is relative. We still anticipate strong demand and continued record highs, but at a reduced pace from what we’ve seen over the past handful of years.
All of this, of course, is a broad stroke. The marketplace is very segmented, most notably the differing performances between the luxury and mid-market sectors. In retrospect the traditional uncertainty that precedes any consequential election, seemed to be “certainty” instead. In that, it seemed the outcome was a forgone conclusion and the market shrugged it all off and moved forward as if it was “business as usual.” Ironically, the result was brisk deal volume across the board; a sign that improving rates are having an effect. Particularly of interest is the luxury sector of $4M+, where the depth of global wealth, all cash deals and subsequent price appreciation are clearly evident, well above the seasonal average. Whether this level of momentum persists is to be determined.
Let’s Go Shopping ! ®
Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home/investment property out there for them. Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
Simed, Salón Inmobiliario del Mediterráneo 2025
It was an honor to have been invited to and participate on a panel at this years SIMED conference in Malaga, Spain. We discussed the global future of luxury…the trends and the must-have experiences demanded by the ever-growing international buyer population. Centrally located on the global map with an average of 300 days of sun annually, there are many extraordinary opportunities in this region of Andalucia, which include Marbella and Estepona. Reach out to me if you would like to learn more; we can discuss your interests, goals and specific needs. Click here to see an impressive presentation on Malaga City’s growth.
