Sell Now?…or 3-5 years from now?
This is the current quandary for those considering selling. This question is even more intense for those who indeed have to sell in the near future. All indications show the market is certainly not on a substantial upward trend in the next several years. There will be moderate growth in certain segments, likely the lower price ranges; however, as you go up the price scale, those increases will be minimal at best. The actual closing prices of recent sales are now beginning to reveal themselves; they are generally lower and in many cases much lower than current prices. The sellers who are paying attention to these figures and adjusting their prices accordingly are the ones who are getting their properties into contract. Those who refuse to face facts are languishing on the market and eroding the value they have.
The luxury market will probably experience a rockier road. There are, of course, outliers to this general trend; apartments that are one-of-a-kind or that are in sought- after buildings, or have a spectacular location and views of the park etc….these will fare a bit better. Aside from those unique homes, most sellers should consider getting on the market now to aggressively identify today’s yield, because tomorrow’s will likely be less. It is impossible to time the market, but the cycle will probably not be complete until well after the 2020 elections, which means 2021.
Will we be have bottomed out by then?…hard to say. Should we make that bet? Some actually say that we have bottomed, but agree that we will just stay here for a while before we see higher closing prices. With so many factors to consider, it is impossible to accurately time the market. Each situation and micro-market will be unique and should be meticulously analyzed, as there is value out there. If you not an “investor” and you are buying a “home”, your time horizon is probably 5-7 years, long enough to endure any extreme fluctuations in value. Assuming so, you should be out there now, as the value you seek to reap could be as much as 15-25% greater than it was in mid-2015 when the market, by many metrics, was peaking.
That current value proposition is even further compounded by the near record low interest rates we are experiencing at this very moment. These low rates have substantially strengthened your purchasing power. So, you should identify a property that works. For those trying to optimally “time” the market and buy later, will interest rates have risen? Will inventory have contracted? Will sentiment (consequently competition for properties) have strengthened? If so, prices will already be on the rise.
The average price of a Manhattan apartments has fallen 5% in the last year and resale properties sold for the largest discounts to asking prices in the last nine years. So while most of your competing buyers are sitting by the pool, there is tremendous value to be found in the marketplace and summer is an extraordinary time to capitalize.
Are you prepared to dive in? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don’t know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home or investment property out there for them.