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So here we are in October of 2025; the peak of Fall market. Demand is higher than the past few years; buyers are recognizing the opportunity and sellers are increasingly fatigued and matching the bids. But the data is all over the place.
According to the UrbanDigs chartroom, Year-over-Year, for Manhattan as a whole, overall supply is up 2%, which favors buyers; however, the Liquidity Pace, which measures contracts signed over the most recent 30 day window is up 7.5%, which favors sellers. The average price per square foot is down 5.7%, which again favors buyers; but the average days on market is down 4.8% to 80 days, which favors sellers.
It’s a mixed bag; it’s like a buffet, where you have caviar on one side and corned beef on the other.
But, these are the broad strokes. The market is far more nuanced and segmented than that. For example, as mentioned, overall supply is up 2%; however, if we break it down between inventory above and below $4M, you will see that it is up 6% below and down nearly 12% for properties over that threshold. Likewise, the Liquidity Pace for below $4M is up 8.5% vs. flat for above. This paints a picture of a slowing luxury market and an acceleration in the more moderate price ranges. The reasons for this could be infinite and include the impending Mayoral election which have the wealthy more cautious than others. However, the influential factor is likely the downward trend of mortgage rates, which are at an 11 month low and reflecting an entire point and a half drop in the past 2 years from 8% in the Fall of 2023 to 6.5%. Consider the difference in purchasing power brought on, by this rate change, in the charts below.
Here we can clearly see why the marketplace for the lower price ranges (where mortgages are most often needed) is beginning to gain momentum.
There is a lot of uncertainty out there; however, nothing like some of the things we’ve seen over the past 5-6 years. New York is resilient and always comes back. With that comes opportunity, before the masses enter the marketplace and create excessive competition and eventually put upward pressure on prices. Not only that, as per usual, once this election passes, so will a lot of uncertainty. It cannot be stressed enough, that New York has survived each and every obstacle and keeps coming back. Buy into the uncertainty; it’s like that ice cream man who comes through the neighborhood every once in a while. You have to take advantage of it.
So find yourself a broker who understands the dynamics of the segmented market that applies to your situation…and Let’s Go Shopping ! ®
