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People always ask, “how’s the market?” That’s a troubling question, because what they really want to know is, “How is the market for ME?” And of course, the reply is everyone’s favorite, “Well…it depends.” And it depends because the marketplace is infinitely segmented into different categories from size, price, neighborhood, type (coop, condo, cond-op or townhouse) etc. Which segment are YOU in?…or which segment are you trying to glean information on? So you can see, its complicated…or rather, it depends.
Deal Volume as measured by Monthly Contract Signed Activity for all properties = +3.4% Year-over-Year.
However, below is a breakdown of where the deals are happening (based on UrbanDigs statistics). Depending upon what “price” segment you are in will tell you a very different story with regards to “how’s the market?” You can see that the lowest of the price brackets, where financing is most often required, has experienced the most challenging time.
But let’s try to answer this question of “how’s the market?” by using a wide lense. Let’s take a look back and see where we are as compared to last year at this point, a Year-over-Year (YoY) perspective.
Inventory, while down (1.3%) overall, is generally considered to be in a moderate range, not high, not low.
Liquidity pace, which measures market activity using a 30-day moving window of contract activity, is up 4.4%.
Contract Activity, which measures the number of contracts signed within any given month, is up 3.4%.
Price/Sqft for resale condos is up 1.3%….and…
Median sales price is up 3.2%.
This would all infer favorable conditions for sellers; however, the actual current trend regarding the market’s climate shows us sliding into a more challenging place. See chart. This is good news for buyers.
Climate Index
The trend started after March, ironically as the tariff war began. If this is indeed related, it would purely be from a perspective of buyer sentiment and uncertainty brought on by heavy press reporting on this matter. I say that, because the actual data on the economy has yet to show any distinct signs of a slowdown. That said, I do believe that its inevitable that the tariffs (which seemingly could average 10% across the board) will slow the economy. Several conflicting scenarios could ensue and affect the marketplace in varying ways…here lies the uncertainty.
Regardless, one thing is for sure; Manhattan real estate is likely to grow increasingly expensive in the coming years. As mentioned over the past few months, we have withstood so many obstacles and have not crashed. Prices have been relatively flat for a decade. Once we begin to see clarity on the questions of the government spending bill, the tariff effect and the Federal Reserve’s response to these matters, we will begin to see demand escalate. That demand is skin deep and simply waiting to execute buyers’ life plans. The pro-forma on future projects being applied by developers today reveals elevated price expectations. I would further argue that the overwhelming share of renters would rather be buyers, particularly as we are knocking on the ceiling of record prices. We see proof of this now, with bidding wars on properly priced properties.
So does that answer your question? I know…it’s complicated and it’s nuanced. So just contact me if you want to chat through your real estate endeavors; for sure, your situation will be unique.
I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
