Manhattan Market Report: ‘Are You Positioned For the Turn?’

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Uncertainty is the table setting of a meal to come. Similarly, tariffs are simply an aperitif to that meal. As tariffs settle in (and they will at some point), the economy will reveal its identity; one we will finally understand better. Once there, the marketplace will accelerate, at which point any moves might be too late.

Wayne Gretzky achieved extraordinary success by preparing ahead; he said, “skate to where the puck is going…not to where it is, or has been”. This marketplace is similar, you need to position yourself in advance. For some who wait for all to be crystal-clear, the moment could pass, deeming them priced-out of the market. By that time, the luxury of “clarity” will be priced in i.e. pricing will be higher. Although we might be a year out, the market is just waiting to breakout price-wise.

Over the past year, Manhattan’s real estate market has shown clear signs of improvement in deal volume, marking a positive shift from the previous period. Despite prices having remained largely flat for nearly a decade, this stability may now be signaling a price “bottom,” suggesting that values have found a floor. Meanwhile, rental prices have soared to all-time highs, prompting many renters to reconsider their options and view purchasing property as a more attractive alternative to continuing to rent.

This convergence of factors – steady demand, historically high rents, and the early stages of a significant generational wealth transfer – sets the stage for potentially substantial price increases in the coming years. Currently, the market offers a moment of relative value, presenting opportunities for buyers who act strategically. However, uncertainty looms in the form of tariffs. While their impact is not immediate, tariffs could exert a significant economic influence as early as the first quarter of next year, much like the delayed effect seen with “transitory inflation”…remember that? The precise consequences for Manhattan’s real estate market remain difficult to predict, adding an element of caution to an otherwise optimistic outlook.

I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.