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The market is showing positive signs, as activity has jumped. August of 2019 actually outperformed August of last year. The counter balancing increase in rents is now, once again, seemingly producing an increase in the numbers of home buyers, as opposed to renters. Substantial price reductions and surprising low interest rates, not seen in years, are making purchasing attractive. Active buyers are further noticing the willingness of “real” sellers to negotiate even more. As I had mentioned before, I believe Manhattan is on “Sale” and that it is likely the greatest buying opportunity, in Manhattan, of our lifetime.
In my 20+ years, I have seen innumerable market turnarounds and they are notoriously quick, often times leaving those trying to time the market empty handed. This time with so much inventory and a dearth of foreign buyers, it is unlikely to turn as abruptly as the past, but it (this) could mark a change in the markets trajectory.
For buyers, the Fall market always presents tremendous opportunity, as sellers understand the window for consummating a deal is short. If sellers do not have offers or have not come to a deal with someone by the second week of November, they know they may not see any offers until Spring. As a result, seller’s ears are open to hearing any offers. In this particular year that futility could be even more severe considering the impending Presidential election year. The uncertainty that notoriously ensues is a nightmare for sellers, but again, an enormous opportunity for buyers.
Anecdote: there is a lot of chatter about a looming recession, which is indeed likely. That said, we must remember that recessions are most commonly brief, lasting only several months to a year. It is defined as two successive quarters of a fall in GDP. It should not be confused with the most recent recession in our minds, The Great Recession, in which there was a total meltdown and which lasted for many years. In recent years, the market has already made a substantial adjustment and the dynamics in our economic policy have been substantially strengthened. Successful real estate investor Alan Schnurman wrote, “When you’re crying, you should be buying. Real estate is basic economics. Buy when there is more supply than demand. Sell when there is more demand than supply.”
Keep in mind that right now interest rates are at eyebrow-raising lows and access to that money is relatively easy. In the event of an actual “recession”, which will certainly be proclaimed in the press, lending institutions will tighten the requirements to access their capital. So if you are solely trying to “time” the market for price, please recognize there are other counter-balancing elements to the equation.
QUESTION:
Are you prepared to dive in? You should always know what you are in a position to buy or sell at all times. If you don’t know, reacquaint yourself with the marketplace. What is your property worth? What can you afford to buy? Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home or investment property out there for them
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Roberto Cabrera
Licensed Real Estate Broker
Brown Harris Stevens
212.906.0554
Your City, Your Broker…
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