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There are two polar opposite opinions among economists and financial squawk boxers about where this thing (the economy) is going and each side is convinced they’re correct. Assuming either is right, will rates follow their respective schools of thought?
It’s MY opinion that it’s a win-win scenario for buyers, either way.
The first point of view sees inflation setting in as a retroactive effect of tariffs, which JUST now might be translating into the metrics. I too believe, like we saw with “transitory inflation” that it takes time, but that inflation will eventually kick in. The questions is, how severe? The Fed’s mandate is to monitor the labor market and inflation and adjust rates to temper whichever of these measures seem to be getting further out of line with their goals. At the moment the labor market is strong and inflation has moderated approaching their 2% target, just not quite there yet. Regardless, if inflation reverses course and begins to rise again, the Fed will indeed raise rates to deal with it. This could further prolong the period of moderate deal volume we’ve been experiencing for 3+ years now.
The second point of view sees rates dropping. These folks currently see rates as restrictive and expect the Fed to capitulate, setting a path for easing. Assisting this point of view is the emerging story of the Executive branch’s growing public campaign and pressure on the Fed to drop rates. Could that pressure artificially effectuate a change prior to what many might consider the “right” time? Although Chairman Powell has been steadfast in is holding-pattern for now, his term will end soon and that power will be passed to someone more docile for the President to have his way. That statement, of course, is not a forgone conclusion as rates are determined by committee and not just the Chairman. It also does not consider the nuanced dynamics that exist within the committee itself. Regardless, those with this point of view are quite vocal about this need to reduce rates.
With these contrasting views in the ether…WHAT’S A BUYER TO DO?…Jump in!!
Here’s why…
In the first scenario, inflation would cause interest rates to rise. So for those concerned about a rise in borrowing costs and its effect on their purchasing power, buying early (soon) would be a preferred strategy. You would be securing a property during a period of currently moderate interest rates and fair pricing, while essentially buying the option to refinance later when rates do indeed moderate. During this time you would skip any further rate hikes while simultaneously and actively building equity in that property. “Win.”
In the second scenario, the moment rates drop, increasing numbers of buyers will enter the marketplace and put upward pressure on prices. This increased demand further reduces the probability of even securing a property in the first place. I have always said that the greatest barrier to entry into the Manhattan marketplace is not the price, but the competition. People have been chomping at the bit to buy and have only been waiting for those rates to drop. So that’s the dam which will give way; let’s not forget the great generational transfer of wealth which has already begun. So here, you beat out the competition at a more fair price than later, and again…begin to build equity in a property. “Win.”
So it’s a Win-Win, either way it goes. The point here is not to try and time the market, but instead spend time IN the market. Particularly at this time of moderate demand, moderate interest rates and before that growing wave of generational wealth comes crashing in. It’s really an interesting moment in time….it’s “Win-Win”!
And Remember, I always say: 1) Anyone interested in buying or selling, should be rolling up their sleeves to determine whether the time is right to sell or if there’s a home/investment property out there for them; and 2) Who represents you matters…your best investment is often in the broker you choose; find someone with experience, who you feel you can trust.
