By Bob Tannenhauser
The NYPD released the citywide crime statistics for the four months of 2023 ending April 30. The city stats showed a decrease in five of the seven major crime categories compared to the same period in 2022. Murder and rape incidents declined by 8.1 percent and 3.3 percent respectively, with felony assaults and grand larceny auto increasing by 8.7 percent and 13.9 percent, respectively.
The year-to-date statistics for the 20th and 24th precincts comprising the Upper West Side are presented below. While the total incidents of the seven major crimes decreased by 11 (mostly in the 24th precinct), there were increases in four of the seven major crime categories. Three murders occurred on the UWS compared to none last year. The 10 rape incidents so far this year represent an increase of two compared to 2022. Felony assaults increased by 15, and grand larceny auto increased by 25 incidents. On the positive side, robbery, burglary, and grand larceny were down by double digits.
| YTD 4/30/23 | YTD 4/30/22 | Difference | |
| 20th Pct | |||
| Murder | 1 | 0 | 1 |
| Rape | 5 | 5 | 0 |
| Robbery | 32 | 38 | -6 |
| Felony Assault | 41 | 26 | 15 |
| Burglary | 46 | 46 | 0 |
| Grand Larceny | 223 | 239 | -16 |
| Grand Larceny Auto | 26 | 17 | 9 |
| Total | 374 | 371 | 3 |
| YTD 4/30/23 | YTD 4/30/22 | Difference | |
| 24th Pct | |||
| Murder | 2 | 0 | 2 |
| Rape | 5 | 3 | 2 |
| Robbery | 39 | 48 | -9 |
| Felony Assault | 50 | 50 | 0 |
| Burglary | 51 | 76 | -25 |
| Grand Larceny | 170 | 170 | 0 |
| Grand Larceny Auto | 34 | 18 | 16 |
| Total | 351 | 365 | -14 |
Before everyone starts commenting (the stats are wrong, I don’t feel safe, etc., etc.), please understand that crime statistics over short periods of time are not terribly useful, and no, despite what you believe, there is no proof that bail reform has had any impact on crime, up or down.
highly correlated but not definitively causal.
You are 100% correct. There is no proof that bail reform has had any impact on crime. But is there any proof it hasn’t? I don’t think so. However perception, even in absence of scientific data, is important. And it does seem that almost every time an accused is arrested for a violent crime, they have a history of multiple priors and are almost always out on bail or ROR awaiting trial for a violent crime.
“Is there any proof that it hasn’t?”
What exactly would such proof look like? How would we design a study to look for evidence of something _not_ existing? The best we can do is look for evidence of the existence of something, and draw conclusions based on whether or not we find such evidence. That’s what the studies on bail reform have done and they’ve found no evidence to link bail reform to increased crime.
” And it does seem that almost every time…”
That’s called “anecdotal data” and it has no statistical significance.
There were almost 50,000 “serious crimes” citywide in 2022. How can you say “it seems every time an accused is arrested…..out on bail…”? There’s a reason we have statistics.
Bail reform hasn’t had an impact. But the major point is that even if it did, the point of bail isn’t to keep people off the streets. The point is to ensure that people show up for trial. So using bail to keep poor defendants in Rikers while rich defendants go free is despicable. If people are a danger then sure they should be kept in jail pending trial but using bail to do that doesn’t work with rich dangerous defendants. Work to beef up pre-trial detention not based on bail — we can all agree on that. Also more money for public defenders and the rest of the system so trials can happen quicker and people will have less time to re-offend while awaiting trial.
If people are committing crimes while out on bail, doesn’t that mean these people are a danger, and should be kept in jail?
If they’re out on bail, they’re awaiting a trial. If they have not yet had a trial, they’re presumed to be innocent. We don’t imprison innocent people (or we’re not supposed to, at least).
Actually, the data does show that bail reform is not responsible for an increase in crime, but that doesn’t seem to mean much in a world where perception, anecdotes, and active fear mongering for political or commercial gain rule the day.
As they say there are “lies, damn lies, and statistics”
https://www.city-journal.org/article/yes-new-yorks-bail-reform-has-increased-crime
From a dashboard maintained by the New York City Criminal Justice Agency:
– 42,935 people in the NYC community had a pending case in February 2023.
– 658, or 1.59% of people, were rearrested and charged with a felony in February 2023.
– 40,834 people were not charged with any new offense in February 2023.
the headline doesn’t adequately tell the story – it’s not that crime is down across nyc, it’s that murder is up 300% in our neighborhood. we need to deal with the serious issues on the upper west side and spinning it won’t help. this is a problem. it must be addressed.
It seems like many of the crimes that terrorize people in the neighborhood now are not categorized as felonies anymore, so they are not reflected in these statistics. Most instances of assault, aggressive harassment, strong arm robbery, and shoplifting/ransacking fly completely under the radar now, but those are impactful major crimes to the victims and their loved ones.
Correct. The article and stats are about “major” crimes. The “minor” ones (shoplifting, misdemeanor assaults, public defecation, theft under some $, etc) are where the bail reform absolutely has an effect. Criminals have no deterrent for that level of crime. And these are on the rise and also wildly underreported. Shops no longer bother to report. NYPD discourages individuals to file. Etc.
That’s it…there is lawlessness going unreported in these stats!
If the absolute number of crimes is not declining (all the time), something’s wrong. No crime is acceptable. Rising crime is reprehesible.
Thanks for posting the most recent data available. My confidence in crime data being collected with rigor is low. Many crimes aren’t reported, as EJ Carroll reminded us this week. Low police morale adds to underreported crime. The fact that so many local residents perceive an increase in crime and other quality-of-life issues in our area is an indicator of reality. Changing that seems well nigh to impossible given leadership voids.
“The fact that so many local residents perceive an increase in crime and other quality-of-life issues in our area is an indicator of reality” is a non sequitur. Reportedly, millions of Americans believe that the 2020 presidential election was stolen. Does that make it true?
So why is everything under lock and key in the drug stores if crime is imaginary
Do you guys have access to stats on all crime, including misdemeanors? There is a lot of reporting that Alvin Bragg’s office reduces everything to misdemeanors. As we all know from living here, experiencing shootings on our sidewalk at 10am on a Tuesday and women getting jumped in the park at 9am on a Friday, it certainly feels like violent crime is up significantly. I’d love to see if some random misdemeanor is up 300% YoY. I’m rooting for that to not be the case, but would be very curious. Checked crime stats on nycgov but it’s unclear if it is showing all crimes, like desk appearance tickets, or not.
Crime statistics are compiled by the NYPD, by reported crimes, they don’t reflect what is charged, downgraded and ignored by the militant arm of the Democratic party, Alvin Bragg’s office..
You also need to consider that crimes are downgraded by the NYPD before reaching any DA’s Office. The 20th Precinct classified the theft of my wallet as “lost property” – no crime there, misdemeanor or felony.
Misdemeanors can be found by clicking on the 20th and 24th pct links in the article.
The numbers in the table are not fully accurate. For the 20th Precinct, the total for YTD 4/20/23 should be 374, and the total for YTD 4/20/22 should be 371. For the 24th Precinct, the total for YTD 4/20/23 should be 351, and the total for YTD 4/20/22 should be 365.
Generally, the info is more meaningfully presented (with percentage changes per crime rather than absolute numbers) in the original CompStat documents from the NYPD located at https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-020pct.pdf and https://www.nyc.gov/assets/nypd/downloads/pdf/crime_statistics/cs-en-us-024pct.pdf
Thank you
We didn’t used to see people robbing stores where nothing happens to them and they return the next day to do it again. Or should we be accepting that this is no longer “criminal” but a normal part of living here? Some people pay for thing, some people do not. Everyone has the option to choose the path that is best for them. Is crime down or have we redefined what is considered criminal?
When we moved to a mitchellama in 1971, W 84 St was the highest crime block in NYC we didn’t moan and whine, we got together and formed block assn patrols, running groups(orange vests) around the reservoir Just curious as to what some complainers are doing now? I think our area is fantastic. We’re very lucky to live here and I don’t mind taking partial credit. Please don’t move out yet.
Is part of your comment missing or is there a typo? I can’t believe West 84th St has ever been the highest crime block in NYC, and definitely not in the 1970s (South Bronx, etc).
I’m not against proactive neighborhood watches at all, but it’s hard to imagine what they could do these days when the employees of the NYC justice system seem to have more sympathy for criminals than victims.
I use to live at 84th and Amsterdam in the 80’s. Every morning I would count the crack tops left on the stoops. It was a tough block.
Anna, you are correct. I grew up on West End Ave. and 84th street in the 60’s and 70’s and it felt (and was!) largely safe and calm. There were certain streets we knew to stay away from–the blocks beginning on 84th/Amsterdam and all the way East, and 85th Street between West End and Riverside, and a few others. The current sympathy for criminals is very real, frightening, and seemingly insoluble. I hope I last long enough to see the tide turn back to sanity.
Lucky to live here? Most of us earned it by working very hard. Nobody gave us handouts or subsidized housing.
actually, Mike, a very large amount of housing in NYC is subsidized in one way or the other. Do you get the mortgage interest deduction? Or have a Fannie Mae insured mortgage, which lowers borrowing rates?
The mortgage interest deduction, which mostly goes to the upper middle class, is the largest housing subsidy in the US.
Every month, when we get the same (but highly appreciated) article, I like to contribute:
The data aren’t accurate. What do YOU see in your day to day life? Rely on that as best you can and ignore the gaslighting.
Counterpoint: Everyone’s perception is different. Statistics and date ARE accurate by comparison.
1) One’s perception is hyper localized to their actual location and commuting context
2) One’s perception includes ‘non crimes’ that still feel unsafe.
3) The data are unreliable because shifting definitions
4) Police don’t report everything that happens
Again, perceptions vary from person to person. I don’t see the UWS getting more and more dangerous, though clearly others do. Statistics help because they’re a measure of actual, recorded crimes. Of course police don’t report everything that happens, but that’s always been the case. Data are still far more reliable than subjective opinions.
Answer: We need to hire (vote) officials that work for US, not themselves. There are more capable candidates out there. Let’s find one that’s up to the job and give them a shot. Out with the old, in with the new.
Given the already elevated number of crimes for the 20th Precinct in recent years, these numbers are poor.
The mayor is not doing enough to decrease crime on the UWS. We need more cops, more cameras, more arrests, and fewer homeless and drug shelters.
We’re not going to have more cops. We’ve defunded them, vilified them, prevented them for performing their duties. And then people wish for more cops. It’s no longer an attractive career path. Recruitment is down, retirement is up.
I’m not sure about more arrests. We need arrested people to go to jail.
Crime is a statistic, quality of life is not. This city is weighing on many of us – the daily near accident moments just crossing the street, the terrifying bikes on the sidewalk when merely trying to walk the dog, the hideous sheds that eliminate any chance of sunlight-for years, filthy streets and garbage everywhere. And the drilling – streets and sidewalks being torn up endlessly – the cycle of sensory abuse never ends. This is what so many of us long-time Manhattan dwellers feel. Tell that to our city officials.
“Quality of life” issues have been de-prioritized. Remember the “don’t honk” signs, etc.? No loitering?
Remember when UWS millionaires cleaned up after their dogs?
Opponents of bail reform can argue that the inability of the Police and the Courts to detain perpetrators of non-violent crime has led to recidivism that is causing our shopkeepers to be subject to revenue loss and work in a climate of fear. Without statistics on petty larceny, the effects of bail reform on public safety can’t be accessed.
VERY often when I’m exiting the subway I see someone jumping the turnstile or jimmying it. And often when I’m on the bus, people enter through the back door.
There is no effective mechanical system to stop this. And the days of busting people for fare beating are over. Bragg et al are OK with low-level crimes?